2021
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Dong, Changgui; Qi, Ye; Nemet, Gregory: A government approach to address coal overcapacity in China. In: Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 278, pp. 123417, 2021, ISSN: 0959-6526. @article{DONG2021123417,
title = {A government approach to address coal overcapacity in China},
author = {Changgui Dong and Ye Qi and Gregory Nemet},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652620334624},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123417},
issn = {0959-6526},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
volume = {278},
pages = {123417},
abstract = {Coal production in China has direct implications for globally important issues such as sustainable development, climate change, and energy transition. However, coal is prone to recurring, and sometimes extended, periods of overcapacity where production capacity is significantly and persistently larger than actual production or demand. Mainstream economics holds that price signals will clear these markets so that extant overcapacity would exit automatically. However, such a self-clearing process usually takes long time and is full of exiting barriers. In this article, we innovatively use a cobweb model to compare China’s government actions to an optimal strategy that minimizes the cost of cutting capacity, allowing us to evaluate the policies’ effectiveness, speed, and cost efficiency. We find that China’s efforts at curbing coal overcapacity have been effective, timely, and only modestly costly in returning the coal market to a sustainable equilibrium. The strong “visible hand” of China’s government has been an effective mechanism of governance to coordinate collective actions of market participants and avoid the overcapacity trap. By removing 500–800 million tons of coal production capacity permanently, China has decarbonized its energy supply system within a relative short time period, thus making more room for the development of renewable energy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Coal production in China has direct implications for globally important issues such as sustainable development, climate change, and energy transition. However, coal is prone to recurring, and sometimes extended, periods of overcapacity where production capacity is significantly and persistently larger than actual production or demand. Mainstream economics holds that price signals will clear these markets so that extant overcapacity would exit automatically. However, such a self-clearing process usually takes long time and is full of exiting barriers. In this article, we innovatively use a cobweb model to compare China’s government actions to an optimal strategy that minimizes the cost of cutting capacity, allowing us to evaluate the policies’ effectiveness, speed, and cost efficiency. We find that China’s efforts at curbing coal overcapacity have been effective, timely, and only modestly costly in returning the coal market to a sustainable equilibrium. The strong “visible hand” of China’s government has been an effective mechanism of governance to coordinate collective actions of market participants and avoid the overcapacity trap. By removing 500–800 million tons of coal production capacity permanently, China has decarbonized its energy supply system within a relative short time period, thus making more room for the development of renewable energy. |
Carvalho, Raquel; Rausch, Lisa; Munger, Jacob; Gibbs, Holly K.: The Role of High-Volume Ranches as Cattle Suppliers: Supply Chain Connections and Cattle Production in Mato Grosso. In: Land, vol. 10, no. 10, 2021, ISSN: 2073-445X. @article{land10101098,
title = {The Role of High-Volume Ranches as Cattle Suppliers: Supply Chain Connections and Cattle Production in Mato Grosso},
author = {Raquel Carvalho and Lisa Rausch and Jacob Munger and Holly K. Gibbs},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/10/1098},
doi = {10.3390/land10101098},
issn = {2073-445X},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Land},
volume = {10},
number = {10},
abstract = {Brazil’s zero-deforestation Cattle Agreements (CAs) have influenced the supply chain but their impact on deforestation has been limited in part because slaughterhouses monitor deforestation only on the properties they buy from directly. Consequently, deforestation continues to enter the supply chain indirectly from properties that are not monitored. Knowledge gaps and data limitations have made it challenging to close this loophole and achieve meaningful reductions in deforestation. Here we leverage our large property-level supply chain database that links together six years of records from the Animal Transport Guide (GTA), high-resolution satellite data, property boundaries, and land cover data to quantify different types of supply chain connections and characterize cattle production in Mato Grosso. We find that a relatively small number of high-volume suppliers—defined as the top 5% of cattle suppliers in terms of the volume of cattle sold–supplied 50–60% of the total volume purchased by major slaughterhouses. One-fourth of high-volume direct suppliers cleared forest between 2009–2018, and 90% of them also bought from indirect suppliers with deforestation, leading these high-volume direct suppliers to act as funnels for deforestation into the supply chain. Because they serve as important hubs in the supply chain, high-volume suppliers may represent a key starting point to expand the CAs to cover large numbers of indirect suppliers.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Brazil’s zero-deforestation Cattle Agreements (CAs) have influenced the supply chain but their impact on deforestation has been limited in part because slaughterhouses monitor deforestation only on the properties they buy from directly. Consequently, deforestation continues to enter the supply chain indirectly from properties that are not monitored. Knowledge gaps and data limitations have made it challenging to close this loophole and achieve meaningful reductions in deforestation. Here we leverage our large property-level supply chain database that links together six years of records from the Animal Transport Guide (GTA), high-resolution satellite data, property boundaries, and land cover data to quantify different types of supply chain connections and characterize cattle production in Mato Grosso. We find that a relatively small number of high-volume suppliers—defined as the top 5% of cattle suppliers in terms of the volume of cattle sold–supplied 50–60% of the total volume purchased by major slaughterhouses. One-fourth of high-volume direct suppliers cleared forest between 2009–2018, and 90% of them also bought from indirect suppliers with deforestation, leading these high-volume direct suppliers to act as funnels for deforestation into the supply chain. Because they serve as important hubs in the supply chain, high-volume suppliers may represent a key starting point to expand the CAs to cover large numbers of indirect suppliers. |
Moffette, Fanny; Gibbs, Holly: Agricultural Displacement and Deforestation Leakage in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. In: Land Economics, vol. 97, pp. 040219-0045R, 2021. @article{articled,
title = {Agricultural Displacement and Deforestation Leakage in the Brazilian Legal Amazon},
author = {Fanny Moffette and Holly Gibbs},
doi = {10.3368/wple.97.1.040219-0045R},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Land Economics},
volume = {97},
pages = {040219-0045R},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Moffette, Fanny; Skidmore, Marin; Gibbs, Holly K.: Environmental policies that shape productivity: Evidence from cattle ranching in the Amazon. In: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 109, pp. 102490, 2021, ISSN: 0095-0696. @article{MOFFETTE2021102490,
title = {Environmental policies that shape productivity: Evidence from cattle ranching in the Amazon},
author = {Fanny Moffette and Marin Skidmore and Holly K. Gibbs},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069621000656},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102490},
issn = {0095-0696},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
volume = {109},
pages = {102490},
abstract = {We examine two potential economic benefits of environmental policy, increased agricultural investment and productivity. This is important because if these benefits are realized, environmental policy could optimize land use for food production while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. We employ multiple empirical techniques to analyze a market-led and a public-led anti-deforestation policy that influence the vast cattle ranching sector in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that both policies increased cattle productivity, while the market-led policy also increased investment. We find no evidence that the two policies were substitutes or complements. Results indicate that the policies were each effective in different market- and land-use-contexts, so that enforcement of both policies increased productivity for a larger set of properties. Our research reveals both indirect and unintended benefits of environmental regulation, which have implications for the design of policies that affect the agricultural sector, a major driver of land-use change.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
We examine two potential economic benefits of environmental policy, increased agricultural investment and productivity. This is important because if these benefits are realized, environmental policy could optimize land use for food production while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. We employ multiple empirical techniques to analyze a market-led and a public-led anti-deforestation policy that influence the vast cattle ranching sector in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that both policies increased cattle productivity, while the market-led policy also increased investment. We find no evidence that the two policies were substitutes or complements. Results indicate that the policies were each effective in different market- and land-use-contexts, so that enforcement of both policies increased productivity for a larger set of properties. Our research reveals both indirect and unintended benefits of environmental regulation, which have implications for the design of policies that affect the agricultural sector, a major driver of land-use change. |
Skidmore, Marin Elisabeth; Moffette, Fanny; Rausch, Lisa; Christie, Matthew; Munger, Jacob; Gibbs, Holly K.: Cattle ranchers and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Production, location, and policies. In: Global Environmental Change, vol. 68, pp. 102280, 2021, ISSN: 0959-3780. @article{SKIDMORE2021102280,
title = {Cattle ranchers and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Production, location, and policies},
author = {Marin Elisabeth Skidmore and Fanny Moffette and Lisa Rausch and Matthew Christie and Jacob Munger and Holly K. Gibbs},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000595},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102280},
issn = {0959-3780},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
volume = {68},
pages = {102280},
abstract = {Deforestation for cattle production persists in the Brazilian Amazon despite ongoing efforts by the public and private sectors to combat it. The complexity of the cattle supply chain, which we describe in depth here, creates challenges for the landmark Zero-Deforestation Cattle Agreements in particular and for enforcement of deforestation policies in general. Here, we present a holistic analysis that is increasingly relevant as the number of policies, initiatives, and markets affecting the region increases. We provide the first property-level analysis of which ranchers decided to deforest in the last decade and identify the characteristics that are most related to deforestation. We rely on newly available animal transit and property boundary data to examine 113,000 properties in the three major cattle-producing states in the Brazilian Amazon. We consider characteristics related to a property’s role in the supply chain, location, land characteristics, and the policy environment. We find that deforestation is most likely to occur on properties that sell fewer cattle and earlier in the supply chain, are located in remote locations, and have a high percent of remaining forest. Our results can be used to improve enforcement of existing policies by targeting resources to properties and location where deforestation is more likely.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Deforestation for cattle production persists in the Brazilian Amazon despite ongoing efforts by the public and private sectors to combat it. The complexity of the cattle supply chain, which we describe in depth here, creates challenges for the landmark Zero-Deforestation Cattle Agreements in particular and for enforcement of deforestation policies in general. Here, we present a holistic analysis that is increasingly relevant as the number of policies, initiatives, and markets affecting the region increases. We provide the first property-level analysis of which ranchers decided to deforest in the last decade and identify the characteristics that are most related to deforestation. We rely on newly available animal transit and property boundary data to examine 113,000 properties in the three major cattle-producing states in the Brazilian Amazon. We consider characteristics related to a property’s role in the supply chain, location, land characteristics, and the policy environment. We find that deforestation is most likely to occur on properties that sell fewer cattle and earlier in the supply chain, are located in remote locations, and have a high percent of remaining forest. Our results can be used to improve enforcement of existing policies by targeting resources to properties and location where deforestation is more likely. |
Charles, Joel; Lois, Abby N.; Mukhopadhyay, Chirantan; Maibach, Edward; Patz, Jonathan A.: Health professionals as advocates for climate solutions: A case study from Wisconsin,. In: The Journal of Climate Change and Health, vol. 4, pp. 100052, 2021, ISSN: 2667-2782, (Getting to a Greener, Healthier World by 2030: Solutions from Healthcare professionals). @article{CHARLES2021100052,
title = {Health professionals as advocates for climate solutions: A case study from Wisconsin,},
author = {Joel Charles and Abby N. Lois and Chirantan Mukhopadhyay and Edward Maibach and Jonathan A. Patz},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278221000493},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100052},
issn = {2667-2782},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {The Journal of Climate Change and Health},
volume = {4},
pages = {100052},
abstract = {Health professionals are in a unique position to accelerate the creation of policies to mitigate and adapt to the public health emergency that is the climate crisis. At the forefront of the burgeoning climate and health movement are state and national health professional networks that are educating their colleagues and the lay public about the gravity of this threat and advocating for equitable solutions. Here we present a case of one such group, Wisconsin Health Professionals for Climate Action (WHPCA), highlighting its organizational structure and path to success. We also present a logic map to help understand the primary leverage points for health professional advocacy.},
note = {Getting to a Greener, Healthier World by 2030: Solutions from Healthcare professionals},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Health professionals are in a unique position to accelerate the creation of policies to mitigate and adapt to the public health emergency that is the climate crisis. At the forefront of the burgeoning climate and health movement are state and national health professional networks that are educating their colleagues and the lay public about the gravity of this threat and advocating for equitable solutions. Here we present a case of one such group, Wisconsin Health Professionals for Climate Action (WHPCA), highlighting its organizational structure and path to success. We also present a logic map to help understand the primary leverage points for health professional advocacy. |
Tefera, Worku; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Gilliland, Frank; Lai, Alexandra; Sricharoenvech, Piyaporn; Patz, Jonathan; Samet, Jonathan; Schauer, James J.: Source Apportionment of Fine Organic Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Central Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 18, no. 21, 2021, ISSN: 1660-4601. @article{ijerph182111608,
title = {Source Apportionment of Fine Organic Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Central Addis Ababa, Ethiopia},
author = {Worku Tefera and Abera Kumie and Kiros Berhane and Frank Gilliland and Alexandra Lai and Piyaporn Sricharoenvech and Jonathan Patz and Jonathan Samet and James J. Schauer},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/21/11608},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph182111608},
issn = {1660-4601},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
volume = {18},
number = {21},
abstract = {The development of infrastructure, a rapidly increasing population, and urbanization has resulted in increasing air pollution levels in the African city of Addis Ababa. Prior investigations into air pollution have not yet sufficiently addressed the sources of atmospheric particulate matter. This study aims to identify the major sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its seasonal contribution in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Twenty-four-hour average PM2.5 mass samples were collected every 6th day, from November 2015 through November 2016. Chemical species were measured in samples and source apportionment was conducted using a chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model that uses particle-phase organic tracer concentrations to estimate source contributions to PM2.5 organic carbon (OC) and the overall PM2.5 mass. Vehicular sources (28%), biomass burning (18.3%), plus soil dust (17.4%) comprise about two-thirds of the PM2.5 mass, followed by sulfate (6.5%). The sources of air pollution vary seasonally, particularly during the main wet season (June–September) and short rain season (February–April): From motor vehicles, (31.0 ± 2.6%) vs. (24.7 ± 1.2%); biomass burning, (21.5 ± 5%) vs. (14 ± 2%); and soil dust, (11 ± 6.4%) vs. (22.7 ± 8.4%), respectively, are amongst the three principal sources of ambient PM2.5 mass in the city. We suggest policy measures focusing on transportation, cleaner fuel or energy, waste management, and increasing awareness on the impact of air pollution on the public’s health.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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The development of infrastructure, a rapidly increasing population, and urbanization has resulted in increasing air pollution levels in the African city of Addis Ababa. Prior investigations into air pollution have not yet sufficiently addressed the sources of atmospheric particulate matter. This study aims to identify the major sources of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its seasonal contribution in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Twenty-four-hour average PM2.5 mass samples were collected every 6th day, from November 2015 through November 2016. Chemical species were measured in samples and source apportionment was conducted using a chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model that uses particle-phase organic tracer concentrations to estimate source contributions to PM2.5 organic carbon (OC) and the overall PM2.5 mass. Vehicular sources (28%), biomass burning (18.3%), plus soil dust (17.4%) comprise about two-thirds of the PM2.5 mass, followed by sulfate (6.5%). The sources of air pollution vary seasonally, particularly during the main wet season (June–September) and short rain season (February–April): From motor vehicles, (31.0 ± 2.6%) vs. (24.7 ± 1.2%); biomass burning, (21.5 ± 5%) vs. (14 ± 2%); and soil dust, (11 ± 6.4%) vs. (22.7 ± 8.4%), respectively, are amongst the three principal sources of ambient PM2.5 mass in the city. We suggest policy measures focusing on transportation, cleaner fuel or energy, waste management, and increasing awareness on the impact of air pollution on the public’s health. |
Sricharoenvech, Piyaporn; Lai, Alexandra; Tefera, Worku; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Gilliland, Frank; Samet, Jonathan; Patz, Jonathan; Schauer, James J.: Reactive oxygen species (ROS) activity of fine particulate matter health impacts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In: Atmospheric Pollution Research, vol. 12, no. 9, pp. 101149, 2021, ISSN: 1309-1042. @article{SRICHAROENVECH2021101149,
title = {Reactive oxygen species (ROS) activity of fine particulate matter health impacts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia},
author = {Piyaporn Sricharoenvech and Alexandra Lai and Worku Tefera and Abera Kumie and Kiros Berhane and Frank Gilliland and Jonathan Samet and Jonathan Patz and James J. Schauer},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1309104221002154},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2021.101149},
issn = {1309-1042},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Atmospheric Pollution Research},
volume = {12},
number = {9},
pages = {101149},
abstract = {Previous studies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, focused on PM characteristics and sources, but PM's biological activity in this area has not been adequately investigated. In this study, cellular and acellular ROS activities were measured to assess PM toxicity. PM2.5 samples in Addis Ababa were collected from November 2015 to November 2016 and their chemical composition was analyzed (organic and elemental carbon (OC/EC), ions, elements, and organic molecular markers). PM-induced ROS activity was measured in vitro in alveolar macrophage cells and using the acellular DTT assay. PM2.5 in Addis Ababa primarily consisted of primary pollutants (e.g., EC, water-insoluble OC). Annual average cellular ROS activities (±SD) were 46.5 ± 15.5 μg Zymosan/m3 and 995 ± 403 μg Zymosan/mg PM (normalized to air volume and PM2.5 mass, respectively), with no clear seasonal variations. The annual average DTT consumption rates (±SD) were 2.35 ± 0.83 nmol/min/m3 and 51.9 ± 17.6 nmol/min/mg PM, respectively, and were also similar throughout the year. Only the monthly air volume-based ROS activity had a similar trend to monthly mass concentration. Compared to other major cities worldwide, Addis Ababa PM2.5 had much lower ROS activity with no strong seasonal trends, paralleling the lack of seasonal changes in PM composition and sources. Poor correlations were observed between ROS activity and all components except mobile source tracers. This difference might be due to lower secondary aerosol content in PM2.5 in Addis Ababa than in other cities.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Previous studies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, focused on PM characteristics and sources, but PM's biological activity in this area has not been adequately investigated. In this study, cellular and acellular ROS activities were measured to assess PM toxicity. PM2.5 samples in Addis Ababa were collected from November 2015 to November 2016 and their chemical composition was analyzed (organic and elemental carbon (OC/EC), ions, elements, and organic molecular markers). PM-induced ROS activity was measured in vitro in alveolar macrophage cells and using the acellular DTT assay. PM2.5 in Addis Ababa primarily consisted of primary pollutants (e.g., EC, water-insoluble OC). Annual average cellular ROS activities (±SD) were 46.5 ± 15.5 μg Zymosan/m3 and 995 ± 403 μg Zymosan/mg PM (normalized to air volume and PM2.5 mass, respectively), with no clear seasonal variations. The annual average DTT consumption rates (±SD) were 2.35 ± 0.83 nmol/min/m3 and 51.9 ± 17.6 nmol/min/mg PM, respectively, and were also similar throughout the year. Only the monthly air volume-based ROS activity had a similar trend to monthly mass concentration. Compared to other major cities worldwide, Addis Ababa PM2.5 had much lower ROS activity with no strong seasonal trends, paralleling the lack of seasonal changes in PM composition and sources. Poor correlations were observed between ROS activity and all components except mobile source tracers. This difference might be due to lower secondary aerosol content in PM2.5 in Addis Ababa than in other cities. |
Younkin, Samuel G.; Fremont, Henry C.; Patz, Jonathan A.: The Health-Oriented Transportation Model: Estimating the health benefits of active transportation. In: Journal of Transport & Health, vol. 22, pp. 101103, 2021, ISSN: 2214-1405. @article{YOUNKIN2021101103,
title = {The Health-Oriented Transportation Model: Estimating the health benefits of active transportation},
author = {Samuel G. Younkin and Henry C. Fremont and Jonathan A. Patz},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221414052100133X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jth.2021.101103},
issn = {2214-1405},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Transport & Health},
volume = {22},
pages = {101103},
abstract = {Introduction
Overdependence on gasoline-powered personal automobiles in industrialized urban settings has resulted in transportation behaviour that is detrimental to public health. Risk not only stems from an increase in air pollution, but also, and more significantly for wealthy nations, from a reduction in physical activity. Tools and models that demonstrate the magnitude of the health benefits of physical activity are needed to inform policies addressing the epidemic of physical inactivity and to help promote environmentally sustainable cities.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Introduction
Overdependence on gasoline-powered personal automobiles in industrialized urban settings has resulted in transportation behaviour that is detrimental to public health. Risk not only stems from an increase in air pollution, but also, and more significantly for wealthy nations, from a reduction in physical activity. Tools and models that demonstrate the magnitude of the health benefits of physical activity are needed to inform policies addressing the epidemic of physical inactivity and to help promote environmentally sustainable cities. |
Kruse, Samuel; Ezenwanne, Odilichi; Matthias, Otto; Kjellstrom, Tord; Patrick, Remington; Bruno, Lemke; Simane, Belay; Jonathan, A: Occupational health impacts of climate change across different climate zones and elevations in sub-Saharan East Africa. In: African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 15, pp. 243-251, 2021. @article{articlee,
title = {Occupational health impacts of climate change across different climate zones and elevations in sub-Saharan East Africa},
author = {Samuel Kruse and Odilichi Ezenwanne and Otto Matthias and Tord Kjellstrom and Remington Patrick and Lemke Bruno and Belay Simane and A Jonathan},
doi = {10.5897/AJEST2021.2976},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology},
volume = {15},
pages = {243-251},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Lee, D.; Ahmadul, H.; Patz, J.; Block, P.: Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh. In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 1807–1823, 2021. @article{nhess-21-1807-2021,
title = {Predicting social and health vulnerability to floods in Bangladesh},
author = {D. Lee and H. Ahmadul and J. Patz and P. Block},
url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/1807/2021/},
doi = {10.5194/nhess-21-1807-2021},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
volume = {21},
number = {6},
pages = {1807--1823},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Hou, Xiao; Gao, Song; Li, Qin; Kang, Yuhao; Chen, Nan; Chen, Kaiping; Rao, Jinmeng; Ellenberg, Jordan S.; Patz, Jonathan A.: Intracounty modeling of COVID-19 infection with human mobility: Assessing spatial heterogeneity with business traffic, age, and race. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118, no. 24, pp. e2020524118, 2021. @article{doi:10.1073/pnas.2020524118,
title = {Intracounty modeling of COVID-19 infection with human mobility: Assessing spatial heterogeneity with business traffic, age, and race},
author = {Xiao Hou and Song Gao and Qin Li and Yuhao Kang and Nan Chen and Kaiping Chen and Jinmeng Rao and Jordan S. Ellenberg and Jonathan A. Patz},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2020524118},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2020524118},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {118},
number = {24},
pages = {e2020524118},
abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat presenting health, economic, and social challenges that continue to escalate. Metapopulation epidemic modeling studies in the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed (SEIR) style have played important roles in informing public health policy making to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. These models typically rely on a key assumption on the homogeneity of the population. This assumption certainly cannot be expected to hold true in real situations; various geographic, socioeconomic, and cultural environments affect the behaviors that drive the spread of COVID-19 in different communities. What’s more, variation of intracounty environments creates spatial heterogeneity of transmission in different regions. To address this issue, we develop a human mobility flow-augmented stochastic SEIR-style epidemic modeling framework with the ability to distinguish different regions and their corresponding behaviors. This modeling framework is then combined with data assimilation and machine learning techniques to reconstruct the historical growth trajectories of COVID-19 confirmed cases in two counties in Wisconsin. The associations between the spread of COVID-19 and business foot traffic, race and ethnicity, and age structure are then investigated. The results reveal that, in a college town (Dane County), the most important heterogeneity is age structure, while, in a large city area (Milwaukee County), racial and ethnic heterogeneity becomes more apparent. Scenario studies further indicate a strong response of the spread rate to various reopening policies, which suggests that policy makers may need to take these heterogeneities into account very carefully when designing policies for mitigating the ongoing spread of COVID-19 and reopening.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global threat presenting health, economic, and social challenges that continue to escalate. Metapopulation epidemic modeling studies in the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed (SEIR) style have played important roles in informing public health policy making to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. These models typically rely on a key assumption on the homogeneity of the population. This assumption certainly cannot be expected to hold true in real situations; various geographic, socioeconomic, and cultural environments affect the behaviors that drive the spread of COVID-19 in different communities. What’s more, variation of intracounty environments creates spatial heterogeneity of transmission in different regions. To address this issue, we develop a human mobility flow-augmented stochastic SEIR-style epidemic modeling framework with the ability to distinguish different regions and their corresponding behaviors. This modeling framework is then combined with data assimilation and machine learning techniques to reconstruct the historical growth trajectories of COVID-19 confirmed cases in two counties in Wisconsin. The associations between the spread of COVID-19 and business foot traffic, race and ethnicity, and age structure are then investigated. The results reveal that, in a college town (Dane County), the most important heterogeneity is age structure, while, in a large city area (Milwaukee County), racial and ethnic heterogeneity becomes more apparent. Scenario studies further indicate a strong response of the spread rate to various reopening policies, which suggests that policy makers may need to take these heterogeneities into account very carefully when designing policies for mitigating the ongoing spread of COVID-19 and reopening. |
Plowright, Raina K; Reaser, Jamie K; Locke, Harvey; Woodley, Stephen J; Patz, Jonathan A; Becker, Daniel J; Oppler, Gabriel; Hudson, Peter J; Tabor, Gary M: Land use-induced spillover: a call to action to safeguard environmental, animal, and human health. In: The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. e237-e245, 2021, ISSN: 2542-5196. @article{PLOWRIGHT2021e237b,
title = {Land use-induced spillover: a call to action to safeguard environmental, animal, and human health},
author = {Raina K Plowright and Jamie K Reaser and Harvey Locke and Stephen J Woodley and Jonathan A Patz and Daniel J Becker and Gabriel Oppler and Peter J Hudson and Gary M Tabor},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519621000310},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00031-0},
issn = {2542-5196},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
pages = {e237-e245},
abstract = {Summary
The rapid global spread and human health impacts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, show humanity's vulnerability to zoonotic disease pandemics. Although anthropogenic land use change is known to be the major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations, the scientific underpinnings of land use-induced zoonotic spillover have rarely been investigated from the landscape perspective. We call for interdisciplinary collaborations to advance knowledge on land use implications for zoonotic disease emergence with a view toward informing the decisions needed to protect human health. In particular, we urge a mechanistic focus on the zoonotic pathogen infect–shed–spill–spread cascade to enable protection of landscape immunity—the ecological conditions that reduce the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts—as a conservation and biosecurity priority. Results are urgently needed to formulate an integrated, holistic set of science-based policy and management measures that effectively and cost-efficiently minimise zoonotic disease risk. We consider opportunities to better institute the necessary scientific collaboration, address primary technical challenges, and advance policy and management issues that warrant particular attention to effectively address health security from local to global scales.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Summary
The rapid global spread and human health impacts of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, show humanity's vulnerability to zoonotic disease pandemics. Although anthropogenic land use change is known to be the major driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations, the scientific underpinnings of land use-induced zoonotic spillover have rarely been investigated from the landscape perspective. We call for interdisciplinary collaborations to advance knowledge on land use implications for zoonotic disease emergence with a view toward informing the decisions needed to protect human health. In particular, we urge a mechanistic focus on the zoonotic pathogen infect–shed–spill–spread cascade to enable protection of landscape immunity—the ecological conditions that reduce the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir hosts—as a conservation and biosecurity priority. Results are urgently needed to formulate an integrated, holistic set of science-based policy and management measures that effectively and cost-efficiently minimise zoonotic disease risk. We consider opportunities to better institute the necessary scientific collaboration, address primary technical challenges, and advance policy and management issues that warrant particular attention to effectively address health security from local to global scales. |
2020
|
Punjabi,; et al,: On the inadequacy of environment impact assessments for projects in Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park of Goa, India: a peer review.. In: Journal of Threatened Taxa, vol. 12, no. 18, pp. 17387-17454, 2020. @article{etalal2020,
title = {On the inadequacy of environment impact assessments for projects in Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park of Goa, India: a peer review.},
author = {Punjabi and et al},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.11609/jott.6650.12.18.17387-17454},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-31},
urldate = {2020-12-31},
journal = {Journal of Threatened Taxa},
volume = {12},
number = {18},
pages = {17387-17454},
abstract = {The Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) is a regulatory framework adopted since 1994 in India to evaluate the impact and mitigation measures of projects, however, even after 25 years of adoption, EIAs continue to be of inferior quality with respect to biodiversity documentation and assessment of impacts and their mitigation measures. This questions the credibility of the exercise, as deficient EIAs are habitually used as a basis for project clearances in ecologically sensitive and irreplaceable regions. The authors reiterate this point by analysing impact assessment documents for three projects: the doubling of the National Highway-4A, doubling of the railway-line from Castlerock to Kulem, and laying of a 400-kV transmission line through the Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park in the state of Goa. Two of these projects were recently granted ‘Wildlife Clearance’ during a virtual meeting of the Standing Committee of the National Board of Wildlife (NBWL) without a thorough assessment of the project impacts. Assessment reports for the road and railway expansion were found to be deficient on multiple fronts regarding biodiversity assessment and projected impacts, whereas no impact assessment report was available in the public domain for the 400-kV transmission line project. This paper highlights the biodiversity significance of this protected area complex in the Western Ghats, and highlights the lacunae in biodiversity documentation and inadequacy of mitigation measures in assessment documents for all three diversion projects. The EIA process needs to improve substantially if India is to protect its natural resources and adhere to environmental protection policies and regulations nationally and globally.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) is a regulatory framework adopted since 1994 in India to evaluate the impact and mitigation measures of projects, however, even after 25 years of adoption, EIAs continue to be of inferior quality with respect to biodiversity documentation and assessment of impacts and their mitigation measures. This questions the credibility of the exercise, as deficient EIAs are habitually used as a basis for project clearances in ecologically sensitive and irreplaceable regions. The authors reiterate this point by analysing impact assessment documents for three projects: the doubling of the National Highway-4A, doubling of the railway-line from Castlerock to Kulem, and laying of a 400-kV transmission line through the Bhagwan Mahavir Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park in the state of Goa. Two of these projects were recently granted ‘Wildlife Clearance’ during a virtual meeting of the Standing Committee of the National Board of Wildlife (NBWL) without a thorough assessment of the project impacts. Assessment reports for the road and railway expansion were found to be deficient on multiple fronts regarding biodiversity assessment and projected impacts, whereas no impact assessment report was available in the public domain for the 400-kV transmission line project. This paper highlights the biodiversity significance of this protected area complex in the Western Ghats, and highlights the lacunae in biodiversity documentation and inadequacy of mitigation measures in assessment documents for all three diversion projects. The EIA process needs to improve substantially if India is to protect its natural resources and adhere to environmental protection policies and regulations nationally and globally. |
Harkey, Monica; Holloway, Tracey; Kim, Eliot J; Baker, Kirk R; Henderson, Barron: Satellite Formaldehyde to Support Model Evaluation. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 126, no. 4, pp. e2020JD032881, 2020, (e2020JD032881 2020JD032881). @article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032881,
title = {Satellite Formaldehyde to Support Model Evaluation},
author = {Monica Harkey and Tracey Holloway and Eliot J Kim and Kirk R Baker and Barron Henderson},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JD032881},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032881},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-24},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
volume = {126},
number = {4},
pages = {e2020JD032881},
abstract = {Abstract Formaldehyde (HCHO), a known carcinogen classified as a hazardous pollutant by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), is measured through monitoring networks across the U.S. Since these data are limited in spatial and temporal extent, model simulations from the U.S. EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are used to estimate ambient HCHO exposure for the EPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). Here, we employ satellite HCHO retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)—the NASA retrieval developed by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), and the European Union Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) retrieval—to evaluate three CMAQ configurations, spanning the summers of 2011 and 2016, with differing biogenic emissions inputs and chemical mechanisms. These CMAQ configurations capture the general spatial and temporal behavior of both satellite retrievals, but underestimate column HCHO, particularly in the western U.S. In the southeastern U.S., the comparison with OMI HCHO highlights differences in modeled meteorology and biogenic emissions even with differences in satellite retrievals. All CMAQ configurations show low daily correlations with OMI HCHO (r = 0.26–0.38), however, we find higher monthly correlations (r = 0.52–0.73), and the models correlate best with the OMI-QA4ECV product. Compared to surface observations, we find improved agreement over a 24-h period compared to afternoon-only, suggesting daily HCHO amounts are captured with more accuracy than afternoon amounts. This work highlights the potential for synergistic improvements in modeling and satellite retrievals to support near-surface HCHO estimates for the NATA and other applications.},
note = {e2020JD032881 2020JD032881},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract Formaldehyde (HCHO), a known carcinogen classified as a hazardous pollutant by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), is measured through monitoring networks across the U.S. Since these data are limited in spatial and temporal extent, model simulations from the U.S. EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are used to estimate ambient HCHO exposure for the EPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). Here, we employ satellite HCHO retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)—the NASA retrieval developed by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO), and the European Union Quality Assurance for Essential Climate Variables (QA4ECV) retrieval—to evaluate three CMAQ configurations, spanning the summers of 2011 and 2016, with differing biogenic emissions inputs and chemical mechanisms. These CMAQ configurations capture the general spatial and temporal behavior of both satellite retrievals, but underestimate column HCHO, particularly in the western U.S. In the southeastern U.S., the comparison with OMI HCHO highlights differences in modeled meteorology and biogenic emissions even with differences in satellite retrievals. All CMAQ configurations show low daily correlations with OMI HCHO (r = 0.26–0.38), however, we find higher monthly correlations (r = 0.52–0.73), and the models correlate best with the OMI-QA4ECV product. Compared to surface observations, we find improved agreement over a 24-h period compared to afternoon-only, suggesting daily HCHO amounts are captured with more accuracy than afternoon amounts. This work highlights the potential for synergistic improvements in modeling and satellite retrievals to support near-surface HCHO estimates for the NATA and other applications. |
Bagwyn, Ruby; Bao, Kylen; Burivalova, Zuzana; Wilcove, David S.: Using citizen-science data to identify declining or recently extinct populations of Bahamian birds. In: Journal of Caribbean Ornithology, vol. 33, pp. 104-110, 2020, ISSN: 1544-4953. @article{Bagwyn2020,
title = {Using citizen-science data to identify declining or recently extinct populations of Bahamian birds},
author = {Ruby Bagwyn and Kylen Bao and Zuzana Burivalova and David S. Wilcove},
url = {https://jco.birdscaribbean.org/index.php/jco/article/view/1243},
issn = { 1544-4953},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-16},
journal = {Journal of Caribbean Ornithology},
volume = {33},
pages = {104-110},
abstract = {Birds restricted to islands are especially vulnerable to extinction. To assess the status of island-specific populations of breeding landbirds in the Bahamas, we analyzed more than 307,000 occurrence records of Bahamian birds from the citizen-science database eBird. We identified populations that have gone unrecorded from 1 January 2012 to 31 May 2018 and which, therefore, may be declining, imperiled, or even extinct. We found 56 island populations, representing 30 species, that have gone unreported during that period. Including eBird records through 31 May 2020 lowered this number to 43 populations representing 25 species. These potentially declining or extinct island populations should be of concern to conservationists and merit follow-up searches by birdwatchers. Citizen-science data in eBird may offer a new way to identify imperiled populations in places that lack systematic, long-term bird surveys.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Birds restricted to islands are especially vulnerable to extinction. To assess the status of island-specific populations of breeding landbirds in the Bahamas, we analyzed more than 307,000 occurrence records of Bahamian birds from the citizen-science database eBird. We identified populations that have gone unrecorded from 1 January 2012 to 31 May 2018 and which, therefore, may be declining, imperiled, or even extinct. We found 56 island populations, representing 30 species, that have gone unreported during that period. Including eBird records through 31 May 2020 lowered this number to 43 populations representing 25 species. These potentially declining or extinct island populations should be of concern to conservationists and merit follow-up searches by birdwatchers. Citizen-science data in eBird may offer a new way to identify imperiled populations in places that lack systematic, long-term bird surveys. |
Heilmayr, Robert; Rausch, Lisa L.; Munger, Jacob; Gibbs, Holly K: Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium reduced deforestation. In: Nature Food, vol. 1, no. 12, pp. 801-810, 2020, ISSN: 2662-1355. @article{Heilmayr2020,
title = {Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium reduced deforestation},
author = {Robert Heilmayr and Lisa L. Rausch and Jacob Munger and Holly K Gibbs},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00194-5},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00194-5},
issn = {2662-1355},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-11},
journal = {Nature Food},
volume = {1},
number = {12},
pages = {801-810},
abstract = {Between 2004 and 2012, multiple policies contributed to one of the great conservation successes of the twenty-first century—an 84% decrease in the rate of Brazilian Amazon deforestation. Among the most prominent of these policies is the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM), an agreement by grain traders not to purchase soy grown on recently deforested land. The ASM inspired widespread adoption of similar zero-deforestation commitments, but its impact is poorly understood due to its overlap with other conservation policies. Here, we apply an econometric triple-differences model to remotely sensed deforestation data to isolate the ASM’s impact within Brazil’s Arc of Deforestation. We show that the ASM reduced deforestation in soy-suitable locations in the Amazon by 0.66 ± 0.32 percentage points relative to a counterfactual control, preventing 18,000 ± 9,000 km2 of deforestation over its first decade (2006–2016). Although these results highlight potential benefits of private conservation policies, the ASM’s success was dependent on complementarities with public property registries and deforestation monitoring.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Between 2004 and 2012, multiple policies contributed to one of the great conservation successes of the twenty-first century—an 84% decrease in the rate of Brazilian Amazon deforestation. Among the most prominent of these policies is the Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM), an agreement by grain traders not to purchase soy grown on recently deforested land. The ASM inspired widespread adoption of similar zero-deforestation commitments, but its impact is poorly understood due to its overlap with other conservation policies. Here, we apply an econometric triple-differences model to remotely sensed deforestation data to isolate the ASM’s impact within Brazil’s Arc of Deforestation. We show that the ASM reduced deforestation in soy-suitable locations in the Amazon by 0.66 ± 0.32 percentage points relative to a counterfactual control, preventing 18,000 ± 9,000 km2 of deforestation over its first decade (2006–2016). Although these results highlight potential benefits of private conservation policies, the ASM’s success was dependent on complementarities with public property registries and deforestation monitoring. |
Limaye, Vijay S.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Stull, Valerie J.; Patz, Jonathan A.: Developing A Definition Of Climate And Health Literacy. In: Health Affairs, vol. 39, no. 12, pp. 2182-2188, 2020. @article{Limaye2020,
title = {Developing A Definition Of Climate And Health Literacy},
author = {Vijay S. Limaye and Maggie L. Grabow and Valerie J. Stull and Jonathan A. Patz},
url = {https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01116},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.01116},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-01},
journal = {Health Affairs},
volume = {39},
number = {12},
pages = {2182-2188},
abstract = {A new generation of activists is calling for bold responses to the climate crisis. Although young people are motivated to act on climate issues, existing educational frameworks do not adequately prepare them by addressing the scope and complexity of the human health risks associated with climate change. We adapted the US government’s climate literacy principles to propose a definition and corresponding set of elements for a concept we term climate and health literacy. We conducted a scoping review to assess how the peer-reviewed literature addresses these elements. Our analysis reveals a focus on training health professionals, more international than US domestic content, and limited information about data and models, fossil fuels, and equity. We propose developing a framework that builds on the elements to support a broader educational agenda that prepares students and future leaders to recognize the complex health ramifications of a changing climate.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A new generation of activists is calling for bold responses to the climate crisis. Although young people are motivated to act on climate issues, existing educational frameworks do not adequately prepare them by addressing the scope and complexity of the human health risks associated with climate change. We adapted the US government’s climate literacy principles to propose a definition and corresponding set of elements for a concept we term climate and health literacy. We conducted a scoping review to assess how the peer-reviewed literature addresses these elements. Our analysis reveals a focus on training health professionals, more international than US domestic content, and limited information about data and models, fossil fuels, and equity. We propose developing a framework that builds on the elements to support a broader educational agenda that prepares students and future leaders to recognize the complex health ramifications of a changing climate. |
Reaser, Jamie; Tabor, Gary M; Becker, Daniel; Muruthi, Philip; Witt, Arne; Woodley, Stephen J; Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel; Patz, MD Jonathan A; Hickey, Valerie; Peter,; Hudson,: Land use-induced spillover: priority actions for protected and conserved area managers. 2020. @misc{reaser_tabor_becker_muruthi_witt_woodley_ruiz-aravena_patz_hickey_hudson_etal._2020,
title = {Land use-induced spillover: priority actions for protected and conserved area managers},
author = {Jamie Reaser and Gary M Tabor and Daniel Becker and Philip Muruthi and Arne Witt and Stephen J Woodley and Manuel Ruiz-Aravena and MD Jonathan A Patz and Valerie Hickey and Peter and Hudson},
url = {ecoevorxiv.org/bmfhw},
doi = {10.32942/osf.io/bmfhw},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-11-01},
publisher = {EcoEvoRxiv},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
|
Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Kucharik, Christopher J.: Spatial and temporal variability of future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape. In: Landscape Ecology, vol. 35, no. 11, pp. 2569-2586, 2020, ISSN: 1572-9761. @article{Qiu2020,
title = {Spatial and temporal variability of future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape},
author = {Jiangxiao Qiu and Stephen R. Carpenter and Eric G. Booth and Melissa Motew and Christopher J. Kucharik},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01045-1},
doi = {10.1007/s10980-020-01045-1},
issn = {1572-9761},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-11-01},
journal = {Landscape Ecology},
volume = {35},
number = {11},
pages = {2569-2586},
abstract = {Sustaining ecosystem services requires enhanced understanding of their spatial--temporal dynamics and responses to drivers. To date, the majority of research has focused on snapshots of ecosystem services, and their spatial--temporal variability has seldom been studied.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Sustaining ecosystem services requires enhanced understanding of their spatial--temporal dynamics and responses to drivers. To date, the majority of research has focused on snapshots of ecosystem services, and their spatial--temporal variability has seldom been studied. |