2021
|
Amintas Brandão Jr., Jr.; Rausch, Lisa; Durán, América Paz; Ciniro Costa Jr., Jr.; 1, Seth A. Spawn; Gibbs, Holly K: Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios. In: Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 1277, 2021, ISSN: 2071-1050. @article{su12031277,
title = {Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios},
author = {Amintas Brandão Jr., Jr. and Lisa Rausch and América Paz Durán and Ciniro Costa Jr., Jr. and Seth A. Spawn 1 and Holly K Gibbs},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/1277},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031277},
issn = {2071-1050},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-02-10},
journal = {Sustainability},
volume = {12},
number = {3},
pages = {1277},
abstract = {Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO2e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO2e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO2e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO2e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks. |
Santika, Truly; Wilson, Kerrie A.; Law, Elizabeth A.; John, Freya A. V. St; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Gibbs, Holly; Morgans, Courtney L.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Meijaard, Erik; Struebig, Matthew J.: Impact of palm oil sustainability certification on village well-being and poverty in Indonesia. In: Nature Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 109-119, 2021, ISSN: 2398-9629. @article{Santika2021,
title = {Impact of palm oil sustainability certification on village well-being and poverty in Indonesia},
author = {Truly Santika and Kerrie A. Wilson and Elizabeth A. Law and Freya A. V. St John and Kimberly M. Carlson and Holly Gibbs and Courtney L. Morgans and Marc Ancrenaz and Erik Meijaard and Matthew J. Struebig},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00630-1},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-020-00630-1},
issn = {2398-9629},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-02-01},
journal = {Nature Sustainability},
volume = {4},
number = {2},
pages = {109-119},
abstract = {The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil has emerged as the leading sustainability certification system to tackle socioenvironmental issues associated with the oil palm industry. However, the effectiveness of certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil in achieving its socioeconomic objectives remains uncertain. We evaluate the impact of certification on village-level well-being across Indonesia by applying counterfactual analysis to multidimensional government poverty data. We compare poverty across 36,311 villages between 2000 and 2018, tracking changes from before oil palm plantations were first established to several years after plantations were certified. Certification was associated with reduced poverty in villages with primarily market-based livelihoods, but not in those in which subsistence livelihoods were dominant before switching to oil palm. We highlight the importance of baseline village livelihood systems in shaping local impacts of agricultural certification and assert that oil palm certification in certain village contexts may require additional resources to ensure socioeconomic objectives are realized.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil has emerged as the leading sustainability certification system to tackle socioenvironmental issues associated with the oil palm industry. However, the effectiveness of certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil in achieving its socioeconomic objectives remains uncertain. We evaluate the impact of certification on village-level well-being across Indonesia by applying counterfactual analysis to multidimensional government poverty data. We compare poverty across 36,311 villages between 2000 and 2018, tracking changes from before oil palm plantations were first established to several years after plantations were certified. Certification was associated with reduced poverty in villages with primarily market-based livelihoods, but not in those in which subsistence livelihoods were dominant before switching to oil palm. We highlight the importance of baseline village livelihood systems in shaping local impacts of agricultural certification and assert that oil palm certification in certain village contexts may require additional resources to ensure socioeconomic objectives are realized. |
Jemaa, Hsan Ben; Nefla, Aymen; Bouragaoui, Zakher; Nouira, Said: Breeding biology of the Eleonora’s falcon, Falco eleonorae within the Galite archipelago. In: Biologia, vol. 76, pp. 1491–1499, 2021. @article{Jemaa2021,
title = {Breeding biology of the Eleonora’s falcon, Falco eleonorae within the Galite archipelago},
author = {Hsan Ben Jemaa and Aymen Nefla and Zakher Bouragaoui and Said Nouira
},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.2478/s11756-020-00654-0},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-06},
urldate = {2021-01-06},
journal = {Biologia},
volume = {76},
pages = {1491–1499},
abstract = {This study was carried out at Galite archipelago over two consecutive breeding seasons (2014 and 2015). We investigated the breeding ecology of Eleonora’s falcon population in Galite archipelago by providing detailed data on its breeding biology and assessing the nesting parameters. Overall, 127 Eleonora’s falcon breeding pairs were recorded in all six islets of the archipelago. The eastern part of the archipelago hosted the highest number of breeding pairs with the highest density recorded at Gallo island (5.93 pairs/ha). Eleonora’s falcon breeding pairs mainly used the protected crevices non-exposed to sun and wind. The overall mean clutch size (mean ± SE) was 1.78 ± 0.10 eggs per clutch. Clutches of two eggs and one egg were the most frequent at Gallo and Fauchelle, respectively. The average hatched eggs per clutch and fledglings per brood were 1.29 ± 0.10 and 1.24 ± 0.10, respectively. The brood size varied significantly with clutch size and nest exposition being higher related to not exposed nest and two as the clutch category was greater. Likewise, the number of fledglings significantly increased with increasing clutch category and was higher in not exposed nests. In fact, hatching or fledging probability increased significantly as nests were not exposed.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This study was carried out at Galite archipelago over two consecutive breeding seasons (2014 and 2015). We investigated the breeding ecology of Eleonora’s falcon population in Galite archipelago by providing detailed data on its breeding biology and assessing the nesting parameters. Overall, 127 Eleonora’s falcon breeding pairs were recorded in all six islets of the archipelago. The eastern part of the archipelago hosted the highest number of breeding pairs with the highest density recorded at Gallo island (5.93 pairs/ha). Eleonora’s falcon breeding pairs mainly used the protected crevices non-exposed to sun and wind. The overall mean clutch size (mean ± SE) was 1.78 ± 0.10 eggs per clutch. Clutches of two eggs and one egg were the most frequent at Gallo and Fauchelle, respectively. The average hatched eggs per clutch and fledglings per brood were 1.29 ± 0.10 and 1.24 ± 0.10, respectively. The brood size varied significantly with clutch size and nest exposition being higher related to not exposed nest and two as the clutch category was greater. Likewise, the number of fledglings significantly increased with increasing clutch category and was higher in not exposed nests. In fact, hatching or fledging probability increased significantly as nests were not exposed. |
Symonds, P; Milner, J; Mohajeri, N; Aplin, J; Hale, J; Lloyd, S J; Fremont, H; Younkin, S; Shrubsole, C; Robertson, L; Taylor, J; Zimmermann, N; Wilkinson, P; Davies, M: A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT) [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]. In: Wellcome Open Research, vol. 5, no. 269, 2021. @article{10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16345.2,
title = {A tool for assessing the climate change mitigation and health impacts of environmental policies: the Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT) [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]},
author = {P Symonds and J Milner and N Mohajeri and J Aplin and J Hale and S J Lloyd and H Fremont and S Younkin and C Shrubsole and L Robertson and J Taylor and N Zimmermann and P Wilkinson and M Davies},
doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16345.2},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Wellcome Open Research},
volume = {5},
number = {269},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Burivalova, Zuzana; Purnomo,; Orndorff, Samantha; Truskinger, Anthony; Roe, Paul; Game, Edward T: The sound of logging: Tropical forest soundscape before, during, and after selective timber extraction. In: Biological Conservation, vol. 254, pp. 108812, 2021, ISSN: 0006-3207. @article{BURIVALOVA2021108812,
title = {The sound of logging: Tropical forest soundscape before, during, and after selective timber extraction},
author = {Zuzana Burivalova and Purnomo and Samantha Orndorff and Anthony Truskinger and Paul Roe and Edward T Game},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320720308703},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108812},
issn = {0006-3207},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Biological Conservation},
volume = {254},
pages = {108812},
abstract = {Over half of the world's tropical forests are used for timber extraction by selective logging. Even though these forests are degraded to a variable degree, they are still important for tropical forest biodiversity. It is not yet known how biodiversity is impacted during and immediately after logging, and how fast it recovers. Here, we use ecoacoustics, and specifically the recording and analysis of soundscape dawn time series, to monitor the immediate impact and early recovery of biodiversity after selective logging. We describe the results of capturing a dawn time series of soundscapes in a Bornean tropical lowland forest before, during, and after selective logging. Soundscape saturation, which is correlated with the number of different calls that make up the soundscape, dropped significantly immediately after selective logging was carried out. The reduced saturation was mostly due to the loss of bird vocalizations, whereas insects did not seem to be impacted. In a space-for-time recording from the same area, soundscape saturation during the equivalent time of day recovered after one year, however began to drop again in years 2 and 3 after logging. Our results are suggestive of a strong effect of logging and seasonality on tropical forest soundscapes. Being able to track biodiversity changes and recovery over time in tropical forests managed for timber production can ultimately improve our odds of avoiding more species extinctions, by providing evidence-based recommendations on how much time forests need to recover biodiversity.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Over half of the world's tropical forests are used for timber extraction by selective logging. Even though these forests are degraded to a variable degree, they are still important for tropical forest biodiversity. It is not yet known how biodiversity is impacted during and immediately after logging, and how fast it recovers. Here, we use ecoacoustics, and specifically the recording and analysis of soundscape dawn time series, to monitor the immediate impact and early recovery of biodiversity after selective logging. We describe the results of capturing a dawn time series of soundscapes in a Bornean tropical lowland forest before, during, and after selective logging. Soundscape saturation, which is correlated with the number of different calls that make up the soundscape, dropped significantly immediately after selective logging was carried out. The reduced saturation was mostly due to the loss of bird vocalizations, whereas insects did not seem to be impacted. In a space-for-time recording from the same area, soundscape saturation during the equivalent time of day recovered after one year, however began to drop again in years 2 and 3 after logging. Our results are suggestive of a strong effect of logging and seasonality on tropical forest soundscapes. Being able to track biodiversity changes and recovery over time in tropical forests managed for timber production can ultimately improve our odds of avoiding more species extinctions, by providing evidence-based recommendations on how much time forests need to recover biodiversity. |
Xie, Y.; Gibbs, H. K.; Lark, T. J.: Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID): 30,m resolution maps of irrigation distribution, frequency, and change for the US, 1997--2017. In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 5689–5710, 2021. @article{essd-13-5689-2021,
title = {Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID): 30,m resolution maps of irrigation distribution, frequency, and change for the US, 1997--2017},
author = {Y. Xie and H. K. Gibbs and T. J. Lark},
url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/5689/2021/},
doi = {10.5194/essd-13-5689-2021},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {13},
number = {12},
pages = {5689--5710},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Khanna, Madhu; Chen, Luoye; Basso, Bruno; Cai, Ximing; Field, John L.; Guan, Kaiyu; Jiang, Chongya; Lark, Tyler J.; Richard, Tom L.; Spawn-Lee, Seth A.; Yang, Pan; Zipp, Katherine Y.: Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production. In: GCB Bioenergy, vol. 13, no. 10, pp. 1590-1609, 2021. @article{https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12877,
title = {Redefining marginal land for bioenergy crop production},
author = {Madhu Khanna and Luoye Chen and Bruno Basso and Ximing Cai and John L. Field and Kaiyu Guan and Chongya Jiang and Tyler J. Lark and Tom L. Richard and Seth A. Spawn-Lee and Pan Yang and Katherine Y. Zipp},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcbb.12877},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12877},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {GCB Bioenergy},
volume = {13},
number = {10},
pages = {1590-1609},
abstract = {Abstract Marginal land has received wide attention for its potential to produce bioenergy feedstocks while minimizing diversion of productive agricultural land from food crop production. However, there has been no consensus in the literature on how to define or identify land that is marginal for food crops and beneficial for bioenergy crops. Studies have used different definitions to quantify the amount of such land available; these have largely been based on assumed biophysical thresholds for soil quality and productivity that are unchanging over space and time. We discuss the limitations of these definitions and the rationale for considering economic returns and environmental outcomes in classifying land as marginal. We then propose the concept of “socially” marginal which is defined as land that is earning close to zero returns after accounting for the monetized costs of environmental externalities generated. We discuss a broad set of criteria for classifying land as socially marginal for food crops and suitable for bioenergy crops; with these criteria, this classification depends on spatially varying and time-varying factors, such as climate and market conditions and policy incentives. While there are challenges related to identifying this marginal land, satellite and other large-scale datasets increasingly enable such analysis at a fine spatial resolution. We also discuss reasons why landowners might choose not to convert bioenergy-suitable land to bioenergy crops, and thus the need for policy incentives to support conversion of land that is socially beneficial for bioenergy crop production.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract Marginal land has received wide attention for its potential to produce bioenergy feedstocks while minimizing diversion of productive agricultural land from food crop production. However, there has been no consensus in the literature on how to define or identify land that is marginal for food crops and beneficial for bioenergy crops. Studies have used different definitions to quantify the amount of such land available; these have largely been based on assumed biophysical thresholds for soil quality and productivity that are unchanging over space and time. We discuss the limitations of these definitions and the rationale for considering economic returns and environmental outcomes in classifying land as marginal. We then propose the concept of “socially” marginal which is defined as land that is earning close to zero returns after accounting for the monetized costs of environmental externalities generated. We discuss a broad set of criteria for classifying land as socially marginal for food crops and suitable for bioenergy crops; with these criteria, this classification depends on spatially varying and time-varying factors, such as climate and market conditions and policy incentives. While there are challenges related to identifying this marginal land, satellite and other large-scale datasets increasingly enable such analysis at a fine spatial resolution. We also discuss reasons why landowners might choose not to convert bioenergy-suitable land to bioenergy crops, and thus the need for policy incentives to support conversion of land that is socially beneficial for bioenergy crop production. |
Drever, C. Ronnie; Cook-Patton, Susan C.; Akhter, Fardausi; Badiou, Pascal H.; Chmura, Gail L.; Davidson, Scott J.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; Dyk, Andrew; Fargione, Joseph E.; Fellows, Max; Filewod, Ben; Hessing-Lewis, Margot; Jayasundara, Susantha; Keeton, William S.; Kroeger, Timm; Lark, Tyler J.; Le, Edward; Leavitt, Sara M.; LeClerc, Marie-Eve; Lemprière, Tony C.; Metsaranta, Juha; McConkey, Brian; Neilson, Eric; St-Laurent, Guillaume Peterson; Puric-Mladenovic, Danijela; Rodrigue, Sebastien; Soolanayakanahally, Raju Y.; Spawn, Seth A.; Strack, Maria; Smyth, Carolyn; Thevathasan, Naresh; Voicu, Mihai; Williams, Christopher A.; Woodbury, Peter B.; Worth, Devon E.; Xu, Zhen; Yeo, Samantha; Kurz, Werner A.: Natural climate solutions for Canada. In: Science Advances, vol. 7, no. 23, pp. eabd6034, 2021. @article{doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd6034,
title = {Natural climate solutions for Canada},
author = {C. Ronnie Drever and Susan C. Cook-Patton and Fardausi Akhter and Pascal H. Badiou and Gail L. Chmura and Scott J. Davidson and Raymond L. Desjardins and Andrew Dyk and Joseph E. Fargione and Max Fellows and Ben Filewod and Margot Hessing-Lewis and Susantha Jayasundara and William S. Keeton and Timm Kroeger and Tyler J. Lark and Edward Le and Sara M. Leavitt and Marie-Eve LeClerc and Tony C. Lemprière and Juha Metsaranta and Brian McConkey and Eric Neilson and Guillaume Peterson St-Laurent and Danijela Puric-Mladenovic and Sebastien Rodrigue and Raju Y. Soolanayakanahally and Seth A. Spawn and Maria Strack and Carolyn Smyth and Naresh Thevathasan and Mihai Voicu and Christopher A. Williams and Peter B. Woodbury and Devon E. Worth and Zhen Xu and Samantha Yeo and Werner A. Kurz},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.abd6034},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.abd6034},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Science Advances},
volume = {7},
number = {23},
pages = {eabd6034},
abstract = {Canada has natural solutions to support its efforts to tackle climate change: forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agriculture. Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Canada has natural solutions to support its efforts to tackle climate change: forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agriculture. Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada’s goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals. |
Chen, Pan; Yuan, Yongping; Li, Wenhong; LeDuc, Stephen D.; Lark, Tyler J.; Zhang, Xuesong; Clark, Christopher: Assessing the Impacts of Recent Crop Expansion on Water Quality in the Missouri River Basin Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. e2020MS002284, 2021, (e2020MS002284 2020MS002284). @article{https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002284,
title = {Assessing the Impacts of Recent Crop Expansion on Water Quality in the Missouri River Basin Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool},
author = {Pan Chen and Yongping Yuan and Wenhong Li and Stephen D. LeDuc and Tyler J. Lark and Xuesong Zhang and Christopher Clark},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020MS002284},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002284},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
volume = {13},
number = {6},
pages = {e2020MS002284},
abstract = {Abstract The Missouri River Basin (MORB) has experienced a resurgence of grassland conversion to crop production, which raised concerns on water quality. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to address how this conversion would impact water quality. We designed three crop production scenarios representing conversion of grassland to: (a) continuous corn; (b) corn/soybean rotation; and (c) corn/wheat rotation to assess the impact. The SWAT model results showed: (a) the lower MORB produced high total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load before conversion (baseline) due mainly to high precipitation and high agricultural activity; (b) the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, coinciding with the highest amount of grassland conversion to cropland; and (c) grassland conversion to continuous corn resulted in the greatest increase in TN and TP loads, followed by conversion to corn/soybean and then conversion to corn/wheat. Although the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, these areas still contributed relatively low TN and TP to total basin loads after conversion. However, watersheds, predominantly in the lower MORB continued to be “hotspots” that contributed the greatest amounts of TN and TP to the total basin loads—driven by a combination of grassland conversion, high precipitation, and loading from pre-existing cropland. At the watershed outlet, the TN and TP loads were increased by 6.4% (13,800 t/yr) and 8.7% (3,400 t/yr), respectively, during the 2008–2016 period for the conversion to continuous corn scenario.},
note = {e2020MS002284 2020MS002284},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract The Missouri River Basin (MORB) has experienced a resurgence of grassland conversion to crop production, which raised concerns on water quality. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to address how this conversion would impact water quality. We designed three crop production scenarios representing conversion of grassland to: (a) continuous corn; (b) corn/soybean rotation; and (c) corn/wheat rotation to assess the impact. The SWAT model results showed: (a) the lower MORB produced high total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) load before conversion (baseline) due mainly to high precipitation and high agricultural activity; (b) the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, coinciding with the highest amount of grassland conversion to cropland; and (c) grassland conversion to continuous corn resulted in the greatest increase in TN and TP loads, followed by conversion to corn/soybean and then conversion to corn/wheat. Although the greatest percentage increases of TN and TP occurred in the North and South Dakotas, these areas still contributed relatively low TN and TP to total basin loads after conversion. However, watersheds, predominantly in the lower MORB continued to be “hotspots” that contributed the greatest amounts of TN and TP to the total basin loads—driven by a combination of grassland conversion, high precipitation, and loading from pre-existing cropland. At the watershed outlet, the TN and TP loads were increased by 6.4% (13,800 t/yr) and 8.7% (3,400 t/yr), respectively, during the 2008–2016 period for the conversion to continuous corn scenario. |
Xie, Yanhua; Lark, Tyler J.: Mapping annual irrigation from Landsat imagery and environmental variables across the conterminous United States. In: Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 260, pp. 112445, 2021, ISSN: 0034-4257. @article{XIE2021112445,
title = {Mapping annual irrigation from Landsat imagery and environmental variables across the conterminous United States},
author = {Yanhua Xie and Tyler J. Lark},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425721001632},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112445},
issn = {0034-4257},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
volume = {260},
pages = {112445},
abstract = {Identifying the location of irrigated croplands and how they change over time is critical for assessing and managing limited water resources to navigate such challenges as local to global water scarcity, increasing demands for food and energy production, and environmental sustainability. Although efforts have been made to map irrigated area for the U.S., multi-year nationwide maps at field-relevant resolutions are still unavailable; existing products suffer from coarse resolution, uncertain accuracy, and/or limited spatial coverage, especially in the eastern U.S. In this study, we present an approach to map the extent of irrigated croplands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) for each year in the period of 1997–2017. To scale nationwide, we developed novel methods to generate training datasets covering both the western and eastern U.S. For the more arid western U.S., we built upon the methods of Xie et al. (2019) and further developed a greenness-based normalization technique to estimate optimal thresholds of crop greenness in any year based on those in USDA NASS census years (i.e., 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017). For the relatively humid eastern states, we collected data on the current status of center pivot irrigated and non-irrigated fields and extended these sample points through time using various indices and observational thresholds. We used the generated samples along with remote sensing features and environmental variables to train county-stratified random forest classifiers annually for pixel-level classification of irrigated extent each year and subsequently implemented a logic-based post-classification filtering. The produced Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID-US) accurately reconstructed NASS irrigation patterns at both the county and state level while also supplying new annual area estimates for intra-epoch years. Nationwide pixel-level locational assessment further demonstrated an overall accuracy above 90% across years. In the 21-year study period, we found several hotspots of irrigation change including significant gains in the U.S. Midwest, the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain, and the East Coast as well as irrigation declines in the central and southern High Plains Aquifer and the southern California Central Valley, Arizona, and Florida. The resulting 30 m resolution LANID-US products represent the finest resolution account of nationwide irrigation use and dynamics across the United States to date. The developed approach, training data, and products are further extendable to other years (either before 1997 or after 2017) for continuous monitoring of irrigated area over CONUS and are spatially applicable to other regions with similar climate and cropping landscapes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Identifying the location of irrigated croplands and how they change over time is critical for assessing and managing limited water resources to navigate such challenges as local to global water scarcity, increasing demands for food and energy production, and environmental sustainability. Although efforts have been made to map irrigated area for the U.S., multi-year nationwide maps at field-relevant resolutions are still unavailable; existing products suffer from coarse resolution, uncertain accuracy, and/or limited spatial coverage, especially in the eastern U.S. In this study, we present an approach to map the extent of irrigated croplands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) for each year in the period of 1997–2017. To scale nationwide, we developed novel methods to generate training datasets covering both the western and eastern U.S. For the more arid western U.S., we built upon the methods of Xie et al. (2019) and further developed a greenness-based normalization technique to estimate optimal thresholds of crop greenness in any year based on those in USDA NASS census years (i.e., 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017). For the relatively humid eastern states, we collected data on the current status of center pivot irrigated and non-irrigated fields and extended these sample points through time using various indices and observational thresholds. We used the generated samples along with remote sensing features and environmental variables to train county-stratified random forest classifiers annually for pixel-level classification of irrigated extent each year and subsequently implemented a logic-based post-classification filtering. The produced Landsat-based Irrigation Dataset (LANID-US) accurately reconstructed NASS irrigation patterns at both the county and state level while also supplying new annual area estimates for intra-epoch years. Nationwide pixel-level locational assessment further demonstrated an overall accuracy above 90% across years. In the 21-year study period, we found several hotspots of irrigation change including significant gains in the U.S. Midwest, the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain, and the East Coast as well as irrigation declines in the central and southern High Plains Aquifer and the southern California Central Valley, Arizona, and Florida. The resulting 30 m resolution LANID-US products represent the finest resolution account of nationwide irrigation use and dynamics across the United States to date. The developed approach, training data, and products are further extendable to other years (either before 1997 or after 2017) for continuous monitoring of irrigated area over CONUS and are spatially applicable to other regions with similar climate and cropping landscapes. |
Lark, Tyler J.; Schelly, Ian H.; Gibbs, Holly K.: Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer. In: Remote Sensing, vol. 13, no. 5, 2021, ISSN: 2072-4292. @article{rs13050968,
title = {Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer},
author = {Tyler J. Lark and Ian H. Schelly and Holly K. Gibbs},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/5/968},
doi = {10.3390/rs13050968},
issn = {2072-4292},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
volume = {13},
number = {5},
abstract = {The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) is a 30 m resolution crop-specific land cover map produced annually to assess crops and cropland area across the conterminous United States. Despite its prominent use and value for monitoring agricultural land use/land cover (LULC), there remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the CDLs’ performance, particularly in applications measuring LULC at national scales, within aggregated classes, or changes across years. To fill this gap, we used state- and land cover class-specific accuracy statistics from the USDA from 2008 to 2016 to comprehensively characterize the performance of the CDL across space and time. We estimated nationwide area-weighted accuracies for the CDL for specific crops as well as for the aggregated classes of cropland and non-cropland. We also derived and reported new metrics of superclass accuracy and within-domain error rates, which help to quantify and differentiate the efficacy of mapping aggregated land use classes (e.g., cropland) among constituent subclasses (i.e., specific crops). We show that aggregate classes embody drastically higher accuracies, such that the CDL correctly identifies cropland from the user’s perspective 97% of the time or greater for all years since nationwide coverage began in 2008. We also quantified the mapping biases of specific crops throughout time and used these data to generate independent bias-adjusted crop area estimates, which may complement other USDA survey- and census-based crop statistics. Our overall findings demonstrate that the CDLs provide highly accurate annual measures of crops and cropland areas, and when used appropriately, are an indispensable tool for monitoring changes to agricultural landscapes.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) is a 30 m resolution crop-specific land cover map produced annually to assess crops and cropland area across the conterminous United States. Despite its prominent use and value for monitoring agricultural land use/land cover (LULC), there remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the CDLs’ performance, particularly in applications measuring LULC at national scales, within aggregated classes, or changes across years. To fill this gap, we used state- and land cover class-specific accuracy statistics from the USDA from 2008 to 2016 to comprehensively characterize the performance of the CDL across space and time. We estimated nationwide area-weighted accuracies for the CDL for specific crops as well as for the aggregated classes of cropland and non-cropland. We also derived and reported new metrics of superclass accuracy and within-domain error rates, which help to quantify and differentiate the efficacy of mapping aggregated land use classes (e.g., cropland) among constituent subclasses (i.e., specific crops). We show that aggregate classes embody drastically higher accuracies, such that the CDL correctly identifies cropland from the user’s perspective 97% of the time or greater for all years since nationwide coverage began in 2008. We also quantified the mapping biases of specific crops throughout time and used these data to generate independent bias-adjusted crop area estimates, which may complement other USDA survey- and census-based crop statistics. Our overall findings demonstrate that the CDLs provide highly accurate annual measures of crops and cropland areas, and when used appropriately, are an indispensable tool for monitoring changes to agricultural landscapes. |
Mailloux, Nicholas A.; Henegan, Colleen P.; Lsoto, Dorothy; Patterson, Kristen P.; West, Paul C.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Patz, Jonathan A.: Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 18, no. 24, 2021, ISSN: 1660-4601. @article{ijerph182413339,
title = {Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions},
author = {Nicholas A. Mailloux and Colleen P. Henegan and Dorothy Lsoto and Kristen P. Patterson and Paul C. West and Jonathan A. Foley and Jonathan A. Patz},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/24/13339},
doi = {10.3390/ijerph182413339},
issn = {1660-4601},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
volume = {18},
number = {24},
abstract = {The climate crisis threatens to exacerbate numerous climate-sensitive health risks, including heatwave mortality, malnutrition from reduced crop yields, water- and vector-borne infectious diseases, and respiratory illness from smog, ozone, allergenic pollen, and wildfires. Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stress the urgent need for action to mitigate climate change, underscoring the need for more scientific assessment of the benefits of climate action for health and wellbeing. Project Drawdown has analyzed more than 80 solutions to address climate change, building on existing technologies and practices, that could be scaled to collectively limit warming to between 1.5° and 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The solutions span nine major sectors and are aggregated into three groups: reducing the sources of emissions, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks, and addressing social inequities. Here we present an overview of how climate solutions in these three areas can benefit human health through improved air quality, increased physical activity, healthier diets, reduced risk of infectious disease, and improved sexual and reproductive health, and universal education. We find that the health benefits of a low-carbon society are more substantial and more numerous than previously realized and should be central to policies addressing climate change. Much of the existing literature focuses on health effects in high-income countries, however, and more research is needed on health and equity implications of climate solutions, especially in the Global South. We conclude that adding the myriad health benefits across multiple climate change solutions can likely add impetus to move climate policies faster and further.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The climate crisis threatens to exacerbate numerous climate-sensitive health risks, including heatwave mortality, malnutrition from reduced crop yields, water- and vector-borne infectious diseases, and respiratory illness from smog, ozone, allergenic pollen, and wildfires. Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stress the urgent need for action to mitigate climate change, underscoring the need for more scientific assessment of the benefits of climate action for health and wellbeing. Project Drawdown has analyzed more than 80 solutions to address climate change, building on existing technologies and practices, that could be scaled to collectively limit warming to between 1.5° and 2 °C above preindustrial levels. The solutions span nine major sectors and are aggregated into three groups: reducing the sources of emissions, maintaining and enhancing carbon sinks, and addressing social inequities. Here we present an overview of how climate solutions in these three areas can benefit human health through improved air quality, increased physical activity, healthier diets, reduced risk of infectious disease, and improved sexual and reproductive health, and universal education. We find that the health benefits of a low-carbon society are more substantial and more numerous than previously realized and should be central to policies addressing climate change. Much of the existing literature focuses on health effects in high-income countries, however, and more research is needed on health and equity implications of climate solutions, especially in the Global South. We conclude that adding the myriad health benefits across multiple climate change solutions can likely add impetus to move climate policies faster and further. |
Sun, Yuren; Maeda, Tatiana Midori; Solis-Lemus, Claudia; Pimentel-Alarcon, Daniel; Burivalova, Zuzana: Classification of animal sounds in a hyperdiverse rainforest using Convolutional Neural Networks. 2021. @misc{https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2111.14971,
title = {Classification of animal sounds in a hyperdiverse rainforest using Convolutional Neural Networks},
author = {Yuren Sun and Tatiana Midori Maeda and Claudia Solis-Lemus and Daniel Pimentel-Alarcon and Zuzana Burivalova},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.14971},
doi = {10.48550/ARXIV.2111.14971},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
publisher = {arXiv},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
|
Downey, Harriet; et al,: Training future generations to deliver evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management. In: Ecological Solutions and Evidence, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. e12032, 2021, (authors include Burivalova). @article{https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12032,
title = {Training future generations to deliver evidence-based conservation and ecosystem management},
author = {Harriet Downey and et al},
url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2688-8319.12032},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12032},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
urldate = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Ecological Solutions and Evidence},
volume = {2},
number = {1},
pages = {e12032},
abstract = {Abstract 1. To be effective, the next generation of conservation practitioners and managers need to be critical thinkers with a deep understanding of how to make evidence-based decisions and of the value of evidence synthesis. 2. If, as educators, we do not make these priorities a core part of what we teach, we are failing to prepare our students to make an effective contribution to conservation practice. 3. To help overcome this problem we have created open access online teaching materials in multiple languages that are stored in Applied Ecology Resources. So far, 117 educators from 23 countries have acknowledged the importance of this and are already teaching or about to teach skills in appraising or using evidence in conservation decision-making. This includes 145 undergraduate, postgraduate or professional development courses. 4. We call for wider teaching of the tools and skills that facilitate evidence-based conservation and also suggest that providing online teaching materials in multiple languages could be beneficial for improving global understanding of other subject areas.},
note = {authors include Burivalova},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract 1. To be effective, the next generation of conservation practitioners and managers need to be critical thinkers with a deep understanding of how to make evidence-based decisions and of the value of evidence synthesis. 2. If, as educators, we do not make these priorities a core part of what we teach, we are failing to prepare our students to make an effective contribution to conservation practice. 3. To help overcome this problem we have created open access online teaching materials in multiple languages that are stored in Applied Ecology Resources. So far, 117 educators from 23 countries have acknowledged the importance of this and are already teaching or about to teach skills in appraising or using evidence in conservation decision-making. This includes 145 undergraduate, postgraduate or professional development courses. 4. We call for wider teaching of the tools and skills that facilitate evidence-based conservation and also suggest that providing online teaching materials in multiple languages could be beneficial for improving global understanding of other subject areas. |
Wang, Nan; Akimoto, Keigo; Nemet, Gregory F.: What went wrong? Learning from three decades of carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) pilot and demonstration projects. In: Energy Policy, vol. 158, pp. 112546, 2021, ISSN: 0301-4215. @article{WANG2021112546,
title = {What went wrong? Learning from three decades of carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) pilot and demonstration projects},
author = {Nan Wang and Keigo Akimoto and Gregory F. Nemet},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142152100416X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112546},
issn = {0301-4215},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Energy Policy},
volume = {158},
pages = {112546},
abstract = {The delivery of operational clean energy projects at scales is essential for addressing climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCUS) is among the most important clean technology, however, most CCUS projects initiated in the past three decades have failed. This study statistically evaluates the reasons for this unfavourable outcome by estimating a hazard model for 263 CCUS projects undertaken between 1995 and 2018. The results indicate that larger plant sizes increase the risk of CCUS projects being terminated or put on hold; increasing capacity by 1 Mt CO2/y increases the risk of failure by nearly 50%. We also examined the impact of technology push and market pull policies and found that existing support mechanisms have not been sufficient in mitigating the risks associated with project upscaling. CCUS deployment at the gigaton scale depends on substantially reducing project risk while increasing expectations of financial returns. Gradual upscaling, increased policy support, particularly for demonstrations of the viability of CCUS, while also building a market through carbon pricing would help remedy the current imbalance between risk and return. Increasing the expected payoffs for CCUS so that hundreds of real projects are brought on-line will require the co-evolution of technology innovation, institutions, investment, and deployment strategy for CCUS technology.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The delivery of operational clean energy projects at scales is essential for addressing climate change. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCUS) is among the most important clean technology, however, most CCUS projects initiated in the past three decades have failed. This study statistically evaluates the reasons for this unfavourable outcome by estimating a hazard model for 263 CCUS projects undertaken between 1995 and 2018. The results indicate that larger plant sizes increase the risk of CCUS projects being terminated or put on hold; increasing capacity by 1 Mt CO2/y increases the risk of failure by nearly 50%. We also examined the impact of technology push and market pull policies and found that existing support mechanisms have not been sufficient in mitigating the risks associated with project upscaling. CCUS deployment at the gigaton scale depends on substantially reducing project risk while increasing expectations of financial returns. Gradual upscaling, increased policy support, particularly for demonstrations of the viability of CCUS, while also building a market through carbon pricing would help remedy the current imbalance between risk and return. Increasing the expected payoffs for CCUS so that hundreds of real projects are brought on-line will require the co-evolution of technology innovation, institutions, investment, and deployment strategy for CCUS technology. |
Lewis, Joanna I.; Nemet, Gregory F.: Assessing learning in low carbon technologies: Toward a more comprehensive approach. In: WIREs Climate Change, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. e730, 2021. @article{https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.730,
title = {Assessing learning in low carbon technologies: Toward a more comprehensive approach},
author = {Joanna I. Lewis and Gregory F. Nemet},
url = {https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.730},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.730},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
volume = {12},
number = {5},
pages = {e730},
abstract = {Abstract With decades of experience developing and deploying low carbon technologies around the world, much has been learned. We assess six categories that represent the diversity of methodological approaches that have been used to study low carbon learning: (1) learning curves; (2) expert elicitations; (3) patent analysis; (4) engineering-based decomposition; (5) policy intervention studies; and (6) case studies. Based on a review of low carbon learning studies in these six areas, we summarize what we know about low carbon learning, and what we have yet to fully understand, including the methodological strengths and limitations of key studies conducted to date. We find that a more comprehensive understanding of low carbon learning is necessary and timely given the massive scale and short time horizon of the low carbon transition, and that there are real benefits to employing a comprehensive approach using multiple methods. We find a need for better data sets, and for studies of a more diverse set of technologies, as well as of interactions among technologies. In addition, studies should be more explicit about local context, with a particular need for additional focus on emerging and developing countries. We identify key topics that warrant further research, including technology specific learning methods; spatial distinctions and the local and global linkages that influence learning; and an expanded study of the cultural, social, environmental, and political factors that influence learning. Finally, we recommend more nuance in the design of policies directed at accelerating low carbon learning. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract With decades of experience developing and deploying low carbon technologies around the world, much has been learned. We assess six categories that represent the diversity of methodological approaches that have been used to study low carbon learning: (1) learning curves; (2) expert elicitations; (3) patent analysis; (4) engineering-based decomposition; (5) policy intervention studies; and (6) case studies. Based on a review of low carbon learning studies in these six areas, we summarize what we know about low carbon learning, and what we have yet to fully understand, including the methodological strengths and limitations of key studies conducted to date. We find that a more comprehensive understanding of low carbon learning is necessary and timely given the massive scale and short time horizon of the low carbon transition, and that there are real benefits to employing a comprehensive approach using multiple methods. We find a need for better data sets, and for studies of a more diverse set of technologies, as well as of interactions among technologies. In addition, studies should be more explicit about local context, with a particular need for additional focus on emerging and developing countries. We identify key topics that warrant further research, including technology specific learning methods; spatial distinctions and the local and global linkages that influence learning; and an expanded study of the cultural, social, environmental, and political factors that influence learning. Finally, we recommend more nuance in the design of policies directed at accelerating low carbon learning. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy |
Ahlstrom, Mark; Mays, Jacob; Gimon, Eric; Gelston, Andrew; Murphy, Caitlin; Denholm, Paul; Nemet, Greg: Hybrid Resources: Challenges, Implications, Opportunities, and Innovation. In: IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 37-44, 2021. @article{9586384,
title = {Hybrid Resources: Challenges, Implications, Opportunities, and Innovation},
author = {Mark Ahlstrom and Jacob Mays and Eric Gimon and Andrew Gelston and Caitlin Murphy and Paul Denholm and Greg Nemet},
doi = {10.1109/MPE.2021.3104077},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {IEEE Power and Energy Magazine},
volume = {19},
number = {6},
pages = {37-44},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jérôme; Nemet, Gregory F.; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Rodrigues, Renato; Baumstark, Lavinia; Kriegler, Elmar: How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways. In: Energy, vol. 216, pp. 119253, 2021, ISSN: 0360-5442. @article{GIANNOUSAKIS2021119253,
title = {How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways},
author = {Anastasis Giannousakis and Jérôme Hilaire and Gregory F. Nemet and Gunnar Luderer and Robert C. Pietzcker and Renato Rodrigues and Lavinia Baumstark and Elmar Kriegler},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220323604},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119253},
issn = {0360-5442},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {216},
pages = {119253},
abstract = {Limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” as stated in the Paris Agreement requires ambitious emissions reductions from all sectors. Rapid technology cost declines in the energy sector are changing energy investment and emissions, even with the weak climate policies currently in place. We assess how energy supply costs and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability affect mitigation by performing a sensitivity analysis with the energy-economy-climate model REMIND. We use new scenarios with carbon price paths that aim to reduce the frequently seen temperature overshoot. Further, we measure the sensitivities of mitigation indicators to the costs of technologies across economic sectors. We assess the sensitivity to nine techno-economic parameters: the costs of wind, solar, biomass, gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and electric/hydrogen vehicles, as well as the injection rate of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). While technology costs play a role in shaping optimal pathways, we find that transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization, whereas costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. This further highlights the value of renewable energy deployment as a no-regrets option in climate policy. In terms of the sensitivity of model outputs, economic indicators become more sensitive to costs than emissions, with increasing policy stringency.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” as stated in the Paris Agreement requires ambitious emissions reductions from all sectors. Rapid technology cost declines in the energy sector are changing energy investment and emissions, even with the weak climate policies currently in place. We assess how energy supply costs and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) availability affect mitigation by performing a sensitivity analysis with the energy-economy-climate model REMIND. We use new scenarios with carbon price paths that aim to reduce the frequently seen temperature overshoot. Further, we measure the sensitivities of mitigation indicators to the costs of technologies across economic sectors. We assess the sensitivity to nine techno-economic parameters: the costs of wind, solar, biomass, gas, coal, oil, nuclear, and electric/hydrogen vehicles, as well as the injection rate of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). While technology costs play a role in shaping optimal pathways, we find that transport sector costs affect the economics of deep decarbonization, whereas costs of renewables are more important for scenarios under weak climate policies. This further highlights the value of renewable energy deployment as a no-regrets option in climate policy. In terms of the sensitivity of model outputs, economic indicators become more sensitive to costs than emissions, with increasing policy stringency. |
Bendorf, Josh; Hubbard, Shane; Kucharik, Christopher J.; VanLoocke, Andy: Rapid changes in agricultural land use and hydrology in the Driftless Region. In: Agrosystems, Geosciences & Environment, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. e20214, 2021. @article{https://doi.org/10.1002/agg2.20214,
title = {Rapid changes in agricultural land use and hydrology in the Driftless Region},
author = {Josh Bendorf and Shane Hubbard and Christopher J. Kucharik and Andy VanLoocke},
url = {https://acsess.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/agg2.20214},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/agg2.20214},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Agrosystems, Geosciences & Environment},
volume = {4},
number = {4},
pages = {e20214},
abstract = {Abstract Annual cropping systems are common in the Driftless Region of the U.S. Midwest, but soil degradation is prone to happen in such systems due to the rugged topography of the region. Recent rapid increases in row crop area have been noted in this region, with annual precipitation and hydrologic extremes on the rise in recent decades. The aim of this research to use geospatial datasets and tools in order to assess the regional trends in land use, precipitation, and hydrologic change and quantify the relationship between these environmental trends. Between 2006 and 2017, substantial row crop expansion of 10,000 ha or more was common across HUC 8 (Hydrologic Unit Code 8) watersheds in our study area. Expansion occurred mainly on steeper slopes, converting existing grasslands or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to row crops. Classifying land as planted (in row crops), plantable (in row crops or could be converted), and unplantable (unable to be converted) revealed that Driftless Region watersheds have ∼30–50% of plantable land available for future expansion. Annual precipitation was highly variable during this time period but had a general increasing trend. On average, precipitation showed higher correlation to streamflow compared to row crop expansion across 27 USGS river gage drainage basins in our study area. However, when the increase in row crop area was significant and was accompanied by increasing precipitation, stronger correlation between row crop area and annual streamflow was exhibited. This finding suggests that row crop expansion acts to enhance the effects of increasing precipitation on local hydrology.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract Annual cropping systems are common in the Driftless Region of the U.S. Midwest, but soil degradation is prone to happen in such systems due to the rugged topography of the region. Recent rapid increases in row crop area have been noted in this region, with annual precipitation and hydrologic extremes on the rise in recent decades. The aim of this research to use geospatial datasets and tools in order to assess the regional trends in land use, precipitation, and hydrologic change and quantify the relationship between these environmental trends. Between 2006 and 2017, substantial row crop expansion of 10,000 ha or more was common across HUC 8 (Hydrologic Unit Code 8) watersheds in our study area. Expansion occurred mainly on steeper slopes, converting existing grasslands or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to row crops. Classifying land as planted (in row crops), plantable (in row crops or could be converted), and unplantable (unable to be converted) revealed that Driftless Region watersheds have ∼30–50% of plantable land available for future expansion. Annual precipitation was highly variable during this time period but had a general increasing trend. On average, precipitation showed higher correlation to streamflow compared to row crop expansion across 27 USGS river gage drainage basins in our study area. However, when the increase in row crop area was significant and was accompanied by increasing precipitation, stronger correlation between row crop area and annual streamflow was exhibited. This finding suggests that row crop expansion acts to enhance the effects of increasing precipitation on local hydrology. |
Huang, Jingyi; Hartemink, Alfred E.; Kucharik, Christopher J.: Soil-dependent responses of US crop yields to climate variability and depth to groundwater. In: Agricultural Systems, vol. 190, pp. 103085, 2021, ISSN: 0308-521X. @article{HUANG2021103085,
title = {Soil-dependent responses of US crop yields to climate variability and depth to groundwater},
author = {Jingyi Huang and Alfred E. Hartemink and Christopher J. Kucharik},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X2100038X},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103085},
issn = {0308-521X},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
journal = {Agricultural Systems},
volume = {190},
pages = {103085},
abstract = {The effects of climate variations on crop yield have been widely studied. However, the effects of soil on crop-climate responses are often ignored in crop yield prediction. We investigated the effects of soil texture and soil organic carbon concentration (SOC) on the yield responses of seven major crops (corn, winter wheat, soybean, cotton, barley, oats, rice) to growing season precipitation and temperature between 1958 and 2019 across the conterminous US. We also evaluated the effects of irrigation and groundwater depth on crop-climate responses. Crop yields were most sensitive to precipitation and temperature variability in coarse-textured soils and less responsive to these weather parameters in medium- and fine- textured soils. Increasing SOC concentration (> 2%) contributed to crop yields being less sensitive to precipitation – due to increased water retention, and less responsive to temperature – presumably due to increased buffering capacity against increased water lost through evapotranspiration. Irrigation and an intermediate depth to groundwater increase the resilience of crops to precipitation and temperature changes and these effects were also dependent on soil texture and SOC. To enhance food security for a rapidly growing global population under a changing climate, best management practices should be adopted that improve soil structure and carbon stocks that can increase soil available water storage (“Green Water”) and nutrient retention and promote energy conservation. The spatial-temporal variations of soil texture, SOC, and depth to groundwater should be considered in agricultural and ecosystem modeling to more accurately capture crop yield response to climate variations.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
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The effects of climate variations on crop yield have been widely studied. However, the effects of soil on crop-climate responses are often ignored in crop yield prediction. We investigated the effects of soil texture and soil organic carbon concentration (SOC) on the yield responses of seven major crops (corn, winter wheat, soybean, cotton, barley, oats, rice) to growing season precipitation and temperature between 1958 and 2019 across the conterminous US. We also evaluated the effects of irrigation and groundwater depth on crop-climate responses. Crop yields were most sensitive to precipitation and temperature variability in coarse-textured soils and less responsive to these weather parameters in medium- and fine- textured soils. Increasing SOC concentration (> 2%) contributed to crop yields being less sensitive to precipitation – due to increased water retention, and less responsive to temperature – presumably due to increased buffering capacity against increased water lost through evapotranspiration. Irrigation and an intermediate depth to groundwater increase the resilience of crops to precipitation and temperature changes and these effects were also dependent on soil texture and SOC. To enhance food security for a rapidly growing global population under a changing climate, best management practices should be adopted that improve soil structure and carbon stocks that can increase soil available water storage (“Green Water”) and nutrient retention and promote energy conservation. The spatial-temporal variations of soil texture, SOC, and depth to groundwater should be considered in agricultural and ecosystem modeling to more accurately capture crop yield response to climate variations. |