Speaker: Jennifer Raynor, Assistant Professor of Forest & Wildlife Ecology, UW-Madison
We are in the middle of the most ambitious marine conservation push in history, with nations pledging to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030. The idea is simple: protect the right places, and ecological outcomes improve. But between any conservation policy and its ecological result sits a black box of human behavior, driven by economic incentives, that determines whether the policy succeeds or fails. My work opens that box. Using fishery observer reports, vessel-tracking data, and satellite radar paired with AI, I measure how fishing fleets actually respond to protection, and I answer three core questions behind the 30×30 movement: Do marine protected areas benefit nearby fisheries? Where does fishing go when areas close? And are protections actually enforced? The evidence is good news for conservation. Well-designed protected areas can benefit both fish and fishers, and industrial fleets are largely respecting them.